Familiar Sunspots Is Re-Emerging
A familiar sunspots is re-emerging on the incoming limb. It is erupting in multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as it crests into view. This is the same region that triggered auroras in late July. Impressively, it has completed its solar rotation with both complexity and magnetic density intact.
While hidden on the far side of the Sun, this group was responsible for several significant CMEs. Now, it rotates back into the Earth-facing zone. It continues to produce M-class flares. The dense ejections signal sustained volatility and a potential for Auroras in the coming weeks.
What’s particularly unusual about the recent CMEs is the early surge in high-energy proton flux. Typically, elevated proton levels aren’t observed until sunspots are directly facing Earth. But this group is still on the incoming limb. In fact, it’s the first time in recent memory we’ve seen such high-energy protons originating from that position. As shown in the chart below, solar particle activity is rising, driving a noticeable increase in proton flux. It makes me wonder whether we’ve entered a new phase of the Solar Maximum.
We’re expecting a modest uptick of G1 in geomagnetic storm Monday into Tuesday. This is driven by a Coronal Hole now rotating away from the solar center. Forecasts suggest a KP index around 4. Nothing major unless some unexpected solar activity sneaks in or this elevated solar proton flux pushes us past predicted activity.
Skies across the Plains and Great Lakes should be relatively cooperative. Cloud cover will range from 10% to 40% cloud coverage. Even better news: the smoke has finally cleared. This gives aurora chasers a solid chance to catch faint displays. These displays can be seen under clearer skies.
Elsewhere, the West Coast, South, and East Coast will have slight to moderate smoke plumes. These smoke plumes hinder visibility for those hoping to catch the show. You will also be in a partly cloudy state tonight.
I would not say this is a strong enough storm that you will want to make a long trip for. But it’s definitely worth checking nearby areas. I would keep your camera bag on the ready for the next two weeks. We have a strong probability that these sunspots will produce some activity.
On the latest composite solar map, the gray region marks the Earth-facing side. Around the 180-degree mark, a well-developed sunspot stands out prominently. Trailing just behind—emerging from the yellow zone are several complex and powerful sunspots responsible for the current flaring. These regions are expected to rotate into the center disk over the next week. With them comes a strong likelihood of fair-sized coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and significant flaring. Let’s hope none of them escalate into a “kill shot.”
Having observed solar patterns for many years, I’ve noticed correlations that science is only beginning to explore. One key pattern: earthquakes often coincide with solar storms. If you live in a quake-prone area, it’s wise to prepare a go-bag and stay alert during peak solar activity. East Coast and through the New Madrid zone have been experiencing earthquakes recently, so you in particular should be ready. A Large quake would be particularly devastating long New Madrid, as many structures are not built to earthquake code.
Another emerging observation: hurricanes and typhoons often intensify and shift direction during solar storms. This theory has gained traction over the past decade, and studies are now underway. I’ve found that storms; Erin, Helen, Milton, Ian, Irma, Maria, Harvey, Katrina, Rita, Charlie, Beryl, the Great Storm of 1859, and Hurricane 1882, all exhibited unusual behavior. They showed this behavior during solar events.
At the moment, we’re tracking an Invest near the Caribbean alongside potential solar activity. I propose we all take notes. Watch closely to see if the hurricane’s path or strength changes in response to the solar storm.
