Prediction for Auroras: Factors Affecting Visibility This Weekend
Stay informed about this weekend’s aurora forecast and solar activity! Recent observations from the SDO/AIA 211 image reveal active regions. These regions are producing significant flares. The flares include high C-class and M-class events targeting Earth. These flares, mixed with a persistent coronal hole stream, enhance aurora visibility, especially if atmospheric conditions align favorably.
Yet, factors like wind polarity, humidity, and cloud cover will influence your viewing experience. Currently, shifts in jet streams have moved smoke away from the Midwest. This shift provides some relief. However, humidity levels are rising. This change may cause auroras to be more diffuse and murky. Northern Rockies offer the best chance for clear, vibrant displays. In contrast, areas like Wisconsin and Michigan may experience increased cloudiness and higher moisture levels. These conditions can make viewing challenging.
Forecasts suggest a KP index peaking around 5, indicating moderate geomagnetic activity. Keep an eye on the sunspot activity, as further reorganization could intensify auroras. For detailed predictions and updates, check out the full forecast here: https://northamericanartproducts.com/prediction-for-auroras-factors-affecting-visibility-this-weekend/. Are you excited to catch the northern lights? Share your thoughts and plans for this weekend’s celestial displays! #AuroraForecast #SpaceWeather #NorthernLights
We have had a high-level C class flare. We also experienced two M-class flares. Due to the location of these sunspots, they are going to be a direct hit. They will combine with the Coronal hole stream that will start Friday night into early Sunday morning.
First set of Lasso is from the C-9 Flare it did came from Sunspot 4207. It looks like it has a flare from the 3rd ahead of it. This flare was hitting satellites. That is why you have a broken image. This sunspot region, 4207 is in a reorganization. It has added a sunspot in that group, but it is shrinking in size of the spot. It remains 70% probability of creating more flaring
The next images is the 1 M-flare and 1.4 M-flare. Apparently, these flares came from the came from in between 4212 and 4206 sunspots. Some active filaments are developing between the two spots.
Sunspot 4206 is holding steady at just an alpha-class sunspot. With only a 10% probability of creating C class flare.
Sunspot 4212 is also an Alpha-class flare with that 10% probability. Unlike 4206, it is adding a sunspot to the group and shrinking a small bit. This is indicative of it gathering energy and organizing into something larger.
The really good news is that the shifts in the jet stream have redirected the smoke. It has moved down into the south over the Dakotas. This is giving the Midwest a break from all the smoke. Unfortunately, that does not help us with the humidity levels. Humidity is going to increase Friday into Early Sunday morning. Humidity will cause auroras to appears murky and defused. So Friday into early Saturday morning is going to make for best viewing.
Below you find Cloud cover maps. Blue is good; there will be fewer clouds there. Deep Grey has thick clouds. This is a contrary forecast. Where we have the least smoke, we are going to have the highest humidity, chances of Rain, and Cloud Cover. Wisconsin, you are definitely going to have a tough time this weekend. In Michigan, plan to stay in the south on Friday. Also, consider staying on the east side of the state. Saturday into Sunday, the clouds will clear in the south and gradually drift up over Northern Lower Michigan. But there will be increasing humidity. This means Auroras will have to be really high overhead to get a good view. If you are in the Northern Rockies, you will have a great Chance at Auroras. Saturday, Plains down into the south will be clearing, but again, humidity will be high.
The forecast is predicted to be around a KP5 at its highest right now. This all can change if some of the sunspots reorganize and continue to get active. We will have the coronal hole stream giving us a little activity through midweek.
