Will We See Auroras This Week?

It is August 9th, and we do have aurora activity coming through the weekend, but will we see it? Smoke from Canadian wildfires is at a low to moderate amount. It is going to blanket much of the US. The East Coast will be free of clouds, but it will have the worst smoke. We have a storm system moving out of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes region. Moderate clouds will persist across the north to the west coast.

For those that are new to aurora hunting, some acts like a defused. A good way to understand this concept is to turn on a light bulb. Then put a sheet of paper between you and the light bulb. You will notice the light you see gets soft in color. This happens because the light rays are bent by the paper. Smoke, Sand, & Humidity will all do the same thing. This makes Auroras soft and flat without pillar definition.

There has been regular M-class to C-class flaring last few days. Today, it is dissipating in strength and pattern, in the flaring is becoming irregular. This indicates some reorganizing is happening around sunspots 4169, 4171 & 4172. I would keep an eye on this region. It is complex and rife with filaments. It also has complex magnetic field lines. Historically speaking, sunspots are quiet and reorganize as they turn Earth-facing. They get a tick on the outgoing limb, and they will spike in activity.

We did have a good-sized CME out of 4166, or just below that. It is pretty far ahead of us. With all the Flaring, CME, and coronal holes, you are to see some sudden spikes in activity. Because this combination of activity, look for the high side of predictions. With snow shovel events possible.

The front side of the coronal hole has been impacting us since yesterday. Today, the hole in the Northern Hemisphere is facing us, and it should impact Tues. We will still have the southern end of the coronal hole for a couple of days after that. Giving you a low-level opportunity to see auroras through mid-week next week. If the smoke shifts, clouds move out.

If you’re hoping to catch the auroras, keep it local for now. Don’t burn your gas on a long trip right now. Wait for the big storms and clear skies, and less smoke. Smoke and clouds can turn a great forecast into a letdown. This is the hard part of auroras, developing patience to wait for the right storm.

Don’t lose hope, though. Fall is coming with it peak aurora season. Based on this month’s predictions, you can expect to want to start watching from August 7th through 12th. Second round, 15th through 19th. This is not exact. so leave a few days on either side when planning a trip to see the lights. Forecasts are based on Coronal holes, which are largely predictable, so you should see something. They also look at sunspots. But these are near impossible to predict as they change hourly sometimes. Start and collapse suddenly. Good Hunting, Everyone!