Could We Get More CMEs From 4274?

I am sure many of our aurora hunters and wondering if there will be more CMEs from 4274? I think to explain we need to take a look at both observed patterns on the sun, what is happening and history. Then you can draw your own conclusion, make your predictions and see if you are right.

To figure this out, I think we have to take a historical look at the pattern on your sun. Typically, Sunspots have been really active as they turn into the incoming limb, but then quiet to near no activity till they rotate past Earth-facing by about a day. As they get closer to the outgoing limb, their activity increases significantly and they remain very active on the back side of the sun.

The main driver of any activity will come from 4274, which is drawing the majority of the sun’s electromagnetic energy. Statistics are telling us that this sunspot is down by 14 individual sunspots but has grown by 180 which in layman terms is it grew by nearly 400 million miles. Many of you might be wondering what that is really telling you?

To understand what is happening, let’s take a time-lapse of 4274 and see the changes. As this rotated around the sun, you will notice it was primarily a positive spot( red and yellow). As it rotated into view, the Negative polarity spot grew and divided. Getting deeper into dark Blue, which is indicative of that magnetic field line reaching deeper into the sun’s surface and intensifying that magnetic field line. It is slowly pulling in smaller, weaker sunspots, which accounts for the reduction in sunspots numbers. At the same time we see that this has widened by 180 or roughly close to 400 million miles. At this time this sunspot is close to 2580 million miles wide.

If you look at the way it has changing you will notice the two deep blue or Negative spots, you can see their margins are becoming more defined as they suck up smaller, weaker (green) negative sunspots ring them. The Positive sunspot below those two Negative sunspots are also strengthening and getting a stronger polarity. It looks as if it will be drawn up between the spots, and the margins there are growing ever tighter. Which means it becomes more likely that these twisting magnetic loops will become more intertwined, enhancing the risk they will bump into each other and break away in CMEs. Just with more power than previous CMEs because these have grown in intensive strength. We still have a lot of weaker negative spots bubbling into the positive.

So think of how a supercell thunderstorm grows on Earth. How with heat and electromagnetic energy it will swallow up smaller cells and feed on their energy. This is kind of the same thing here. Like a supercell that needs heat, moisture, and wind shear to create a tornado, this sunspot is putting all the right ingredients together to create a superstorm on the sun. As the margins of each spot become more defined and more energized, it is drawing everything in tighter together, and that will result in very large eruptions. Let’s just hope it is not directly earth-facing when it finally breaks loose.

We don’t have modern diagram view of the Carrington Event or the sunspot that created it. All we have is a rough sketch and simulation of what we think it would have looked like. I think you are wise enough to see some comparisons between these two spots and how each polarity is drawing tight and defined margins. We will have to wait to see whether this is going to drop the next Carrington Event or whether it will blessed wait till it is out of view as many others have done over the last 10 years.

https://www.livescience.com/space/the-sun/see-the-monster-sunspot-that-launched-the-carrington-event-the-most-devastating-solar-storm-in-recorded-history

This article has some background on Carrington Events for those who are curious. And the Link below will link you to a list of Newspaper Articles on historic storms over the last few hundred years and how those storms impacted humanity. https://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html. It is a good read with at least one very humorous event.