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Forecast for Sept 2,2026
Current Forecast
Forecast for Sept 2, 2026 is expected to be quiet today and tomorrow. We did have a 3.1 M Class flare at 1600 UTC. Depending on where this flare happened and it’s trajectory it is likely to change forecast for the weekend. As it just happened, models have not had a chance to update or give prediction changes. The 3.1 M Class flare was long duration and this likely means that there was an accompanying CME. But what direction that will take I am not yet sure. The proceeding C class flares look like they are going toward the incoming limb and maybe coming from those spots on back side. If this is the case, then likely it will largely miss us. You can see though from Castus image that there is faint slow wind better than half way around the disk, which means maybe between a KP2 and Kp3 bump up on Friday.
What is on the Back Side of Sun
We do have some deep spots on the back side of the sun that are just behind the limb. Those should be visible this next week. I expect the leading sunspot and trailing lower sunspit to be little stronger. If these are significantly active they could give us an abrupt storm condition that is unexpected. We likely would have a 24 hour lead time to prepare.
Twenty Seven Day look.
Twenty Seven Day forecast is not giving us much for the middle of the month and aiming our largest storm conditions at the 25th -27th. But we shall see what happens. It just takes one good CME to change everything on a dime, and for the last few years, there has consistently been something in the first half of Sept not later than middle of month.
Long Range Look, beyond Aurora
Side note, you should be keeping an eye on El Nino, Earthquakes and Volcanic activity. I get this is an aurora hunting channel. But nothing happens in isolation. Solar storms affect more than pretty lights and we do well to understand that. Everything is a bit strange at the moment, with Die Pole earthquakes bouncing back and forth around the globe. This has been worrying as there have been a number of very large earthquakes and is showing a distinct shift in the ring of fire.
Now it is not unusual to have around 40 volcanoes active around the globe on any given day. But it is the volcanoes they are putting on alert that matters. Several of these historically have given large enough eruptions that have altered weather patterns around the world for anywhere to a season to 10 years. It is the particular Volcano’s history of eruptions that is worrying and how high the spew dioxides and ash into the atmosphere. Here is a link that tells you about the most dangerious volcanoes https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eov_noteworthy Currently on the worrying list is Vesuvius, Etna, Stromboli,Santori, Krakatau, Popocatépetl and Tambora. Tambora is a volcanoes that has been heard around the world and has a history of having eruptions that have changed global weather pattern for more than year. They are currently seeing earthquake swarms around Mount Rainer. The worry with this is pyroclastic flows could be deadly to wide area. The Coso Volcanic Field in Southern California has been seeing unusual earthquake activities and scientist are watching this area closely, as it is not just one volcano but a range of the. Of course there has been changes in YellowStone around some mud volcano field. At this time though these are not hugely worrying.
El Nino is are wild card. I have heard a range of forecasts and these keep changing. The only thing agreed on by all is this is the warmest recorded El Nino and they expect a major shift in weather patterns. Our great lakes area could be average to warmer temps with more lake affect snow, or not. Safet bet, prepare for the worst. Make sure you have extra food in the house. have alternative heating plan in place should power go out and make sure you know how to use what you have to better warm your house in an emergency. for example how to blow out pipes, shut off water, so pipes don’t burst. How to use blankets to cover windows to create vapor locks, with draw to smaller area in house to keep warm and in a major event, a tent to set up in the house to sleep in. Heating smaller spaces, can save your life in a major event. Just in case we do get a record breaking storms or two. Better to be prepared and not need it than to do nothing and end up in dire straits.
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Guidelines for Aurora Hunting!
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Guidelines for Aurora Hunting!
Reason for Guidelines.
Guidelines for Aurora hunters helps us develop good habits. These good habits allow us to work together more effectively. Now that many people have cell phones capable of seeing auroras we are starting to have over crowding issues. If everyone is doing their own thing, without thought for others. It becomes like the wild west with no rules. This is when accidents will happen. Trespassing happens, people make costly mistakes. and people miss shots they want.
These Guidelines are a check list. If you do things the same way every time, you brain will develop a routine that you do without thinking about. If we are all following the same guidelines. Then we all develop the same habits. In times when we are over excited about seeing auroras this will kick in, and prevent us from creating dangerous situations, avoid ruining other peoples photos and help you do everything right so you miss nothing
Basic Guidelines
1.    Your eyes will take several minutes to adjust to the darkness, so turn off your car lights as soon as you park. Wait a few minutes before venturing away from your car to give your eyes time to adjust. This makes sure you are not flooding light into other peoples pictures. Most cars work best by turning your headlights straight off and then turn off your car. This will turn off the time delay.
2.    Set your focus by your car. This way, you can use a flashlight without disturbing others who may be shooting. Double-check focus Taking a picture then enlarging an image on the back of your camera to ensure the stars are tack sharp. Not all infinity spots are spot on, you will need to test your lens. Also if you carry painters tap, put it on side of your lens it will prevent it from turning out of focus.
3.    Set your white balance, shutter speed, f-stop, and ISO before leaving your car. This way, you can make minor adjustments in the field without struggling. A shutter speed of 20- 30 seconds, the lowest f-stop possible, and an ISO of 1600 are good starting points. If you need more light, raise your ISO. If you need less light turn down ISO. If your stars are a Comma then reduce your shutter speed. There is a rule called 500 rule to determine ideal setting for your lens.
4. Use a red light when walking to avoid disturbing your night vision. However, use a regular flashlight around other people—normal flashlight light can be corrected in editing, but red light is nearly impossible to fix.
5. Keep all flashlights and headlamps pointed at the ground while walking so you do not bother other people with your light. Aim your light away from anyone you pass to avoid disturbing their night vision or photography.
6. Walk behind people, not in front of them, in the dark. Cameras require long exposures at night, and they may be in the middle of a shot.
7. Be aware of your surroundings so you do not set up in front of someone else. Some photographers may not mind an aurora hunter in their shot, but most do.
8. If you are near other people and need to use a flashlight, call out first and wait for confirmation that shutters are closed before turning it on.
9.    Learn your camera well enough that you do not need a flashlight to adjust your settings. If you know where your buttons are and how to change settings, you can train yourself to do that by touch. LCD screen is bright enough to see what you are changing. Also you may want to reduce brightness of LCD screen on the back of your camera. Left in daylight setting it will make you think your image is more exposed than it is.
10. Make sure you research how to set up histogram in your camera. Learn to depend on it because it always tells you if you are exposed properly. If the hill in your histogram is all the way to the left , then you are to dark. If it is middle to the right then chances are you are to bright. Though my one tip is to shoot 1 stop overexposed at night. You can draw down your highlights a stop in editing, your shadows up a stop. This gives you a wider gradient that is more level between shadows and hightlights.
11. Practice safety in the field. Never leave your wingman until everyone is back in their car and engines are started.
Some Basic Safety
- Park on the same side of the road you are going to. People have been killed crossing the road at night. Avoid doing that at all costs.
- Get a simple reflective vest with pockets at a hardware. This can assure you are seen at night in parking lots or by roads. Pockets can double at way to carry batteries, cards and keys.
- NEVER park on both sides of the road. This creates a tunnel that cars must travel through and leaves them no where to swerve if someone steps out in front of them.
- Respect Park Rules if you are in park respect the rules. If you become a proble by ignoring rules, others will follow and then parks will close areas at night because people aren’t respecting the park.
- Respect Private Property don’t go walking down on private property without permission.
- Don’t walk out into fields without permission. they are private property and you could be costing a farmer money.
- Leave Handicapped parking spaces for handicapped hunters. We do have hunters that do have handicapped and there isn’t enough safe places for them to do, Don’t take space away from the.
- Park in designated parking spots. don’t park on the grass. don’t park in front of signage like stop signs or park notifications.
- Plan ahead with more than one location, so if one place is full there are other places to go nearby.
- If you are traveling a distance, use your groups to try to find a local to meet up with. You are safer using a buddy system and safer with someone that knows the local area.
- Michigan Aurora Hunters https://www.facebook.com/groups/827471430698956
- Wisconsin Aurora Hunters https://www.facebook.com/groups/176764332892448
- North American Dark Skies https://www.facebook.com/groups/Unitedstatesdarkskies
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Sept 3, 2026 Forecast
Sept 3, 2026 Forecast
At the moment, predictions aren’t on target. There was not a predicted solar storm of significance today and ended up with a brief spike to KP4. I think think for the next week you should expect anything to happen. I am saying this because their timelines are really slow for the predicted wind speeds. Things may happen sooner if these CMEs are moving at top speed.
View of HUXt
For Clarity I am going to use HUXt because I think it is going to give a clearer picture. If you put video into motion you will see that majority of the flares and CMEs are coming from incoming limb or just behind it. Unless one of those CMEs was a wide horizontal ejection and moving sideways majority will miss earth. Which is what HUXt predicts.
Several times in the last few years we have sunspots erupt from this Position. Because of their trajectory and size they did hit earth. Mother’s Day of 2024 being one of them. In the graph below you will see the timing they predict on the one CME that is likely to hit us. I am thinking the timing won’t be exact as these are moving at between 1000 to 1900 Kilometers per second and that is a pretty good speed to hit sooner than they are predicting. We also do have a coronal hole that is just shy of center disk, so if this arrives on their predicted timeline then CME will combine with that coronal hole steam. In shorthand, expect the error to be on the high side. Particularly if we get anymore CMEs in earth’s direction today.
looking at Patterns
I am also going to point out here that the pattern here. The time between flares is getting shorter. As these sunspots rotate around to earth facing, and they magnetically connect with earth I would expect them to get more active. This is likely what will cause our mid month spike in activity. Will it give us an unexpected big storm, we will have to see. Historically we for the last 5 to 10 years we have had a significant storm in the second and third weeks of Sept. The last three years, solar storms have been seen further south than ever before, at much lower KP values. I think we have a shot at something hitting we don’t expect.
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Guidelines for Aurora Hunting!
