Do We Have More Auroras Coming?

Good afternoon, everyone! We woke up to the news that we had an X1.79 flare and CME. Don’t get excited yet. Fortunately for us, the CME was caught by a filament, which captured and pulled energy back toward the sun. We will get some activity from the flare, but not the blast from the CME. This is a good thing. Had this been released directly on Earth, it could have created issues with power, internet, and cell phone coverage. Not what we need in the middle of snowstorms.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWAULtxz424&t=1s

Now we do have some developing coronal holes opening on the northern and southern hemispheres. And some filaments by 4274 are developing enough to be a potential for eruption. And it looks like we have a new sunspot region on the incoming limb. There is a new sunspot 4279, which is just developing Alpha-class spot. 4276 & 4277 are beta-gamma, both are still dropping C C-class flares.

4274 has continued to reorganize. We are up by 24 new spots. Think of this like a hurricane, as the core gets stronger, the more organized and wicked the storm. In this case, the positively charged spots are increasing in strength and drawing up tighter to surround our Negative spots. The less space between polarities, the more eruptive this will get. I predict that in about two days, this is going to get back to the point is making regular flaring and dropping bigger CMEs. I hope though, it rotates further around before dropping a huge CME.

We are now firmly into a winter pattern, and we are going to have squally clouds through the week. But the further we get into the week, the better the chance for good aurora viewing. We are going to briefly warm up just a little again through the end of the week, but then I fear winter will set in for real with little hope of a warm-up. By next weekend, we are going to set into a squally rain pattern that will carry on through the next week

We have entered a La Niña pattern. Which means we have cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures. Lake Michigan is a big warmer that is going to bring more lake effect until it freezes over. We have a weakening polar vortex, which is going to allow the jet stream to wobble and get these large kinks in it that allow colder weather to be drawn down into the USA. North Atlantic is cooling which is going to allow for colder temperatures as well. Looks to be a very long winter, and not a lot of great chances for auroras in the next four months.

But rather than waste your winter, use it for study. Start learning your solar Science so that you understand what you see. It is nowadays, everyone likes to repeat forecasts like it is big news. Unfortunately, it often ends up being fake news, as forecasts are wrong 50%. If you take the time to observe and learn the science, then you will have a better sense of when to jump on a solar storm or when to wait for it. It is also a good time to do tutorials on your cell phone, cameras, and editing. University of YouTube has a lot of really good videos that will help you learn. Don’t let your winter go to waste, focus on learning.