January Forecast

Currently, we’re still experiencing winter conditions. Much of the country has reduced chances of witnessing Auroras due to weather. Although a few weather breaks are expected, it’s uncertain whether they will bring clear skies. So, I wouldn’t get too hopeful just yet. On a positive note, the Santa Ana winds are blowing westward. They carry smoke plumes out over the ocean rather than eastward.

Magnetism on the sun’s surface is on the rise as sunspots expand, leading to increased solar flare activity. Although flaring has been minimal in recent days, there’s a noticeable uptick in M-class flares. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are now short and impulsive. They are showing broader widths. This suggests some CMEs are more to be directed toward Earth. Sunspot 3664, characterized as beta-gamma-delta, remains capable of releasing Earth-directed blasts but will rotate out in the next few days. Sunspot 3661, located just off the center disk, is also a beta-gamma-delta region. This sunspot is worth monitoring closely. It reorganizes and intensifies, with smaller spots merging into a larger one. These changes show a potential for eruption. A predicted period from February 1st to February 5th sees activity reaching KP5 levels.

Exciting news from the scientific community: we are approaching the peak of Zenith around July 2025. No need to worry, as we still have several years on the declining side of Peak. During the last peak, some of the largest storms occurred on this side. We experienced a KP3 average on more days each month. This allowed for more visible lower-level auroras in the northern states. The most promising news is that scientists expect cycles 26 and 27 to be strong. They expect these cycles to be stronger than this relatively weak cycle. The threat of a least appears to have diminished.

What does this mean for you? Well, you still have a chance at that chance for dream Aurora vacation for another two years. We will have a period of least, before the return of great aurora hunting. This is the perfect time to start working on your skills. Plan to get that upgrade in equipment. Be sure to follow us.

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