Forecast
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Are We Going To Finally Get Big Fall Auroras ?
Are we going to finally get big Fall Auroras ? I am not sure? We have some breaks in between storms. a time where things might dissipate between the first two CMEs and the one that happened to day. However we have incoming coronal hole stream as well. So my best guess is that it is all down to trajectory and windspeeds. Will CME combine with another or coronal hole stream.
Good news is there’s are solid M Class flares getting increasingly larger as they go. The are though only listed as Quarter Halo hits. Good thing being they are off the outgoing limb and Centrifugal force will spin it slightly backwards. leading to a good chance the first two CME will be a solid hit coming in between 11pm and 4 am eastern Time Thursday into Friday. The third CME is less certain. It is a possibility that we may only get a glancing blow from it.
The incoming coronal hole is a trans equatorial and quite spread out. The leading edge may still combine with the last CME giving us a chance at snow shovel event. It will take another 3 or 4 days for us to see the effects of the main part of Coronal holes. Plus side this is giving us an extend chance at auroras. Most of the CME are really slow, so there is a greater chance that they may combine with other smaller CME and Coronal holes boosting density for brief periods.
Looks like Friday Morning is going to be our best chance at up to a KP6. Then things will likely dissipate to KP4 and then spike again as coronal hole and third CME come in.
We will still have 4549 with us another day and that is beta-gamma-delta. The CMEs have been getting increasingly larger so it is possible we have something larger from it. 4548 is now rolling into center stage. I don’t know as it will continue to grow, as 4545 and 4549 are continuing to grow. If these two spots continue to grow significantly they may come around in 27 days, as a combined stronger sunspot.
This year has been really funky. Neither weather or space weather are quite doing what they should. So it will be anyone’s guess.
I believe the back side of the sun may provide us with relief as well. There have been some larger eruptions this week from behind the sun, moving away from earth. This indicates we do have a complex group of sunspots just around the back side of outgoing limb. If these hold together these will return toward the end of the month.
We are looking good for Thursday into Friday. Saturday night becomes problematic for Michigan. Monday into Tuesday we see a return to our fall rainstorms. Good News it is rainbow season. The sun is sitting at just the right angle to produce some great rainbow at sunrise and sunset. After the 15th we should see a return to partly clear skies through the 23. The hiccup in all of it will be do we have fog and humidity on the horizon hat will block our view?
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What Is Coming in October? CME, Coronal Hole, and Aurora Watch for the Great Lakes
What is coming for the first Week in October?
Skywatchers across the Great Lakes region are watching a potentially active stretch of space weather as a recent CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) and an Earth-facing coronal hole combine to increase the chances of geomagnetic activity.
A C8.6 solar flare was observed on September 30, followed by indicators that many space weather enthusiasts associate with increasing solar activity. At the same time, a coronal hole facing Earth is expected to send a stream of faster solar wind toward our planet in the days ahead.
Forecast models suggest a possible solar wind impact beginning Friday afternoon, with wind speeds potentially increasing from around 200 km/s to more than 550 km/s. If the incoming CME and high-speed solar wind stream interact favorably with Earth’s magnetic field, aurora visibility could improve across northern-tier states and southern Canada.
Cloud cover may also play an important role. Current forecasts suggest skies could begin clearing from western Upper Michigan and progress southeastward through northern Lower Michigan, including the Traverse City region. Western Minnesota may see increasing cloud cover, while a separate system is expected to affect parts of northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan Saturday night.
By Sunday, clearer skies are expected across much of the northern Great Lakes region, potentially providing another opportunity for aurora viewing if geomagnetic conditions remain elevated.
As always, the intensity of any aurora display will depend on several factors, including solar wind speed, density, and the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. Space weather conditions can change rapidly, making this a weekend worth watching for anyone interested in the northern lights.
Keywords: Aurora Forecast, Northern Lights Michigan, Traverse City Aurora, CME Impact, Coronal Hole Solar Wind, Space Weather Forecast, Solar Storm Watch, Great Lakes Aurora, October Aurora Forecast.
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Forecast for Sept 2,2026
Current Forecast
Forecast for Sept 2, 2026 is expected to be quiet today and tomorrow. We did have a 3.1 M Class flare at 1600 UTC. Depending on where this flare happened and it’s trajectory it is likely to change forecast for the weekend. As it just happened, models have not had a chance to update or give prediction changes. The 3.1 M Class flare was long duration and this likely means that there was an accompanying CME. But what direction that will take I am not yet sure. The proceeding C class flares look like they are going toward the incoming limb and maybe coming from those spots on back side. If this is the case, then likely it will largely miss us. You can see though from Castus image that there is faint slow wind better than half way around the disk, which means maybe between a KP2 and Kp3 bump up on Friday.
What is on the Back Side of Sun
We do have some deep spots on the back side of the sun that are just behind the limb. Those should be visible this next week. I expect the leading sunspot and trailing lower sunspit to be little stronger. If these are significantly active they could give us an abrupt storm condition that is unexpected. We likely would have a 24 hour lead time to prepare.
Twenty Seven Day look.
Twenty Seven Day forecast is not giving us much for the middle of the month and aiming our largest storm conditions at the 25th -27th. But we shall see what happens. It just takes one good CME to change everything on a dime, and for the last few years, there has consistently been something in the first half of Sept not later than middle of month.
Long Range Look, beyond Aurora
Side note, you should be keeping an eye on El Nino, Earthquakes and Volcanic activity. I get this is an aurora hunting channel. But nothing happens in isolation. Solar storms affect more than pretty lights and we do well to understand that. Everything is a bit strange at the moment, with Die Pole earthquakes bouncing back and forth around the globe. This has been worrying as there have been a number of very large earthquakes and is showing a distinct shift in the ring of fire.
Now it is not unusual to have around 40 volcanoes active around the globe on any given day. But it is the volcanoes they are putting on alert that matters. Several of these historically have given large enough eruptions that have altered weather patterns around the world for anywhere to a season to 10 years. It is the particular Volcano’s history of eruptions that is worrying and how high the spew dioxides and ash into the atmosphere. Here is a link that tells you about the most dangerious volcanoes https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eov_noteworthy Currently on the worrying list is Vesuvius, Etna, Stromboli,Santori, Krakatau, Popocatépetl and Tambora. Tambora is a volcanoes that has been heard around the world and has a history of having eruptions that have changed global weather pattern for more than year. They are currently seeing earthquake swarms around Mount Rainer. The worry with this is pyroclastic flows could be deadly to wide area. The Coso Volcanic Field in Southern California has been seeing unusual earthquake activities and scientist are watching this area closely, as it is not just one volcano but a range of the. Of course there has been changes in YellowStone around some mud volcano field. At this time though these are not hugely worrying.
El Nino is are wild card. I have heard a range of forecasts and these keep changing. The only thing agreed on by all is this is the warmest recorded El Nino and they expect a major shift in weather patterns. Our great lakes area could be average to warmer temps with more lake affect snow, or not. Safet bet, prepare for the worst. Make sure you have extra food in the house. have alternative heating plan in place should power go out and make sure you know how to use what you have to better warm your house in an emergency. for example how to blow out pipes, shut off water, so pipes don’t burst. How to use blankets to cover windows to create vapor locks, with draw to smaller area in house to keep warm and in a major event, a tent to set up in the house to sleep in. Heating smaller spaces, can save your life in a major event. Just in case we do get a record breaking storms or two. Better to be prepared and not need it than to do nothing and end up in dire straits.
