Sept 3, 2026 Forecast

Sept 3, 2026 Forecast

At the moment, predictions aren’t on target. There was not a predicted solar storm of significance today and ended up with a brief spike to KP4. I think think for the next week you should expect anything to happen. I am saying this because their timelines are really slow for the predicted wind speeds. Things may happen sooner if these CMEs are moving at top speed.

View of HUXt

For Clarity I am going to use HUXt because I think it is going to give a clearer picture. If you put video into motion you will see that majority of the flares and CMEs are coming from incoming limb or just behind it. Unless one of those CMEs was a wide horizontal ejection and moving sideways majority will miss earth. Which is what HUXt predicts.

Several times in the last few years we have sunspots erupt from this Position. Because of their trajectory and size they did hit earth. Mother’s Day of 2024 being one of them. In the graph below you will see the timing they predict on the one CME that is likely to hit us. I am thinking the timing won’t be exact as these are moving at between 1000 to 1900 Kilometers per second and that is a pretty good speed to hit sooner than they are predicting. We also do have a coronal hole that is just shy of center disk, so if this arrives on their predicted timeline then CME will combine with that coronal hole steam. In shorthand, expect the error to be on the high side. Particularly if we get anymore CMEs in earth’s direction today.

looking at Patterns

I am also going to point out here that the pattern here. The time between flares is getting shorter. As these sunspots rotate around to earth facing, and they magnetically connect with earth I would expect them to get more active. This is likely what will cause our mid month spike in activity. Will it give us an unexpected big storm, we will have to see. Historically we for the last 5 to 10 years we have had a significant storm in the second and third weeks of Sept. The last three years, solar storms have been seen further south than ever before, at much lower KP values. I think we have a shot at something hitting we don’t expect.