Current Forecast

Forecast for Sept 2, 2026 is expected to be quiet today and tomorrow. We did have a 3.1 M Class flare at 1600 UTC. Depending on where this flare happened and it’s trajectory it is likely to change forecast for the weekend. As it just happened, models have not had a chance to update or give prediction changes. The 3.1 M Class flare was long duration and this likely means that there was an accompanying CME. But what direction that will take I am not yet sure. The proceeding C class flares look like they are going toward the incoming limb and maybe coming from those spots on back side. If this is the case, then likely it will largely miss us. You can see though from Castus image that there is faint slow wind better than half way around the disk, which means maybe between a KP2 and Kp3 bump up on Friday.

What is on the Back Side of Sun

We do have some deep spots on the back side of the sun that are just behind the limb. Those should be visible this next week. I expect the leading sunspot and trailing lower sunspit to be little stronger. If these are significantly active they could give us an abrupt storm condition that is unexpected. We likely would have a 24 hour lead time to prepare.

Twenty Seven Day look.

Twenty Seven Day forecast is not giving us much for the middle of the month and aiming our largest storm conditions at the 25th -27th. But we shall see what happens. It just takes one good CME to change everything on a dime, and for the last few years, there has consistently been something in the first half of Sept not later than middle of month.

Long Range Look, beyond Aurora

Side note, you should be keeping an eye on El Nino, Earthquakes and Volcanic activity. I get this is an aurora hunting channel. But nothing happens in isolation. Solar storms affect more than pretty lights and we do well to understand that. Everything is a bit strange at the moment, with Die Pole earthquakes bouncing back and forth around the globe. This has been worrying as there have been a number of very large earthquakes and is showing a distinct shift in the ring of fire.

Now it is not unusual to have around 40 volcanoes active around the globe on any given day. But it is the volcanoes they are putting on alert that matters. Several of these historically have given large enough eruptions that have altered weather patterns around the world for anywhere to a season to 10 years. It is the particular Volcano’s history of eruptions that is worrying and how high the spew dioxides and ash into the atmosphere. Here is a link that tells you about the most dangerious volcanoes https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eov_noteworthy Currently on the worrying list is Vesuvius, Etna, Stromboli,Santori, Krakatau, Popocatépetl and Tambora. Tambora is a volcanoes that has been heard around the world and has a history of having eruptions that have changed global weather pattern for more than year. They are currently seeing earthquake swarms around Mount Rainer. The worry with this is pyroclastic flows could be deadly to wide area. The Coso Volcanic Field in Southern California has been seeing unusual earthquake activities and scientist are watching this area closely, as it is not just one volcano but a range of the. Of course there has been changes in YellowStone around some mud volcano field. At this time though these are not hugely worrying.

El Nino is are wild card. I have heard a range of forecasts and these keep changing. The only thing agreed on by all is this is the warmest recorded El Nino and they expect a major shift in weather patterns. Our great lakes area could be average to warmer temps with more lake affect snow, or not. Safet bet, prepare for the worst. Make sure you have extra food in the house. have alternative heating plan in place should power go out and make sure you know how to use what you have to better warm your house in an emergency. for example how to blow out pipes, shut off water, so pipes don’t burst. How to use blankets to cover windows to create vapor locks, with draw to smaller area in house to keep warm and in a major event, a tent to set up in the house to sleep in. Heating smaller spaces, can save your life in a major event. Just in case we do get a record breaking storms or two. Better to be prepared and not need it than to do nothing and end up in dire straits.

Sept 3, 2026 Forecast

At the moment, predictions aren’t on target. There was not a predicted solar storm of significance today and ended up with a brief spike to KP4. I think think for the next week you should expect anything to happen. I am saying this because their timelines are really slow for the predicted wind speeds. Things may happen sooner if these CMEs are moving at top speed.

View of HUXt

For Clarity I am going to use HUXt because I think it is going to give a clearer picture. If you put video into motion you will see that majority of the flares and CMEs are coming from incoming limb or just behind it. Unless one of those CMEs was a wide horizontal ejection and moving sideways majority will miss earth. Which is what HUXt predicts.

Several times in the last few years we have sunspots erupt from this Position. Because of their trajectory and size they did hit earth. Mother’s Day of 2024 being one of them. In the graph below you will see the timing they predict on the one CME that is likely to hit us. I am thinking the timing won’t be exact as these are moving at between 1000 to 1900 Kilometers per second and that is a pretty good speed to hit sooner than they are predicting. We also do have a coronal hole that is just shy of center disk, so if this arrives on their predicted timeline then CME will combine with that coronal hole steam. In shorthand, expect the error to be on the high side. Particularly if we get anymore CMEs in earth’s direction today.

looking at Patterns

I am also going to point out here that the pattern here. The time between flares is getting shorter. As these sunspots rotate around to earth facing, and they magnetically connect with earth I would expect them to get more active. This is likely what will cause our mid month spike in activity. Will it give us an unexpected big storm, we will have to see. Historically we for the last 5 to 10 years we have had a significant storm in the second and third weeks of Sept. The last three years, solar storms have been seen further south than ever before, at much lower KP values. I think we have a shot at something hitting we don’t expect.