Let’s address the elephant in the room: aurora hunters across Michigan and Wisconsin have been getting skunked by aurora forecast and auroras have illusive. With Auroras rarely have met expected predictions.

Over the past several days, forecasts have pointed toward increased geomagnetic activity, but the atmosphere around Earth has simply not responded the way many Predicted. Solar wind speeds have remained disappointingly slow, generally staying below 400 km/s and often much closer to 350 km/s. While we briefly touched Kp4 during the day, the enhancement was short-lived and lacked the strength needed to produce a widespread Northern Lights display across the Upper Great Lakes.

The question many skywatchers are asking is whether the anticipated Earth-directed CME has fully arrived. Based on current conditions, it is difficult to make that case. What we are seeing suggests either a weaker-than-expected impact, a delayed arrival, or possibly only glancing blows from some of the solar material that was expected to influence Earth’s magnetic field.

The Sun itself, however, has not been quiet. Over the last 36 hours, several C-class flares were observed, including a C7.9 event, along with an M1.3 flare. Ending Today in a in a massive long duration series of flares that lasted 5 hours. It came from 4549, started with X2.7, into M1.2 and M 6.6 to a C4.6. Those eruptions help extend the period of interest for aurora watchers through approximately October 16, depending ion how if this swirls back, if it had horizontal shape, and windspeed. 4549 is pretty far out on the limb and Huxt has this last one going Just past on off outgoing limb. NOAA gives us a chance at Glancing blow of the outside edge of storm. After today I don’t think we have much chance of that sunspot hitting us again.

We do have 4551 rotating into view it remains a Beta class sunspot. It does how every have a 55% chance at C Class flares. If it tracks with typical pattern it will become more magnetically connected and active once it reaches center disk.

We have also observed several backside CMEs, along with an eruption near the outgoing limb that may produce some wraparound effects. At this time, however, none of those events appear likely to deliver a major direct impact to Earth. If they contribute at all, they are more likely to provide minor enhancements rather than become significant drivers of geomagnetic activity.

Meanwhile, attention is beginning to shift toward activity rotating onto the Earth-facing side of the Sun. It is still too early to determine exactly what may be emerging around the incoming limb, but it will be one of the more important features to watch over the next couple of weeks. This has been producing back side eruptions and it appears to be active. If it holds together coming around the limb will be what produces the end of the month activity which is already predicted to hit KP5.

Unfortunately, another factor is beginning to enter the forecast. Weather systems are expected to move into the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday, bringing increasing cloud cover across Northern Michigan and Northern Wisconsin. If the timing holds, those clouds could obscure viewing opportunities during a period when some of the current solar activity may finally begin reaching Earth.

Forecast Conclusion

For that reason, I believe it is best to err on the low side of the predictions. We are battling low windspeeds, 4549 rotating out of range, 4551 is only a Beta, and we are hitting the fall rain period. Also humidity has been high enough we are getting low level clouds that lay right in the space auroras occupy. Ten day forecast has Great Lakes region having thunderstorms Tues Oct13 fading in to heavy clouds through the Oct 16th. Then clearing to partly Cloudy through Oct 24 with day time temperatures sinking to 58 degrees.

We are growing closer to that winter pattern of paternal cloudy skies that frequently make aurora hunting in Great Lakes region difficult. The whole region is predicted to have warmer than normal winter, this means Lakes won’t freeze and Michigan will likely have more lake effect snow and clouds. Anyone guess to what winter will actually be, El Nino is now 3.7 degrees above normal temperatures. Well above record high El Nino. This is likely going to chaos world wide with dramatic weather changes.

Bottom Line: The chance for Northern Lights has not disappeared, particularly from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Current data suggests a conservative forecast is the most responsible approach. The Sun continues to provide opportunities, but slow solar wind speeds remain the biggest obstacle. With clouds expected to move into Northern Michigan and Northern Wisconsin by late Monday, the coming weekend may offer the best viewing opportunity in the near term. Keep watching the data, keep an eye on the incoming solar activity, and be prepared for conditions to change quickly if the solar wind finally decides to cooperate.

The opportunity for auroras remains real, and conditions can change quickly if solar wind speeds increase or magnetic field conditions strengthen. The developing activity coming around the solar limb provides one reason to remain interested in the forecast beyond this weekend. If that region holds together and develops further, aurora prospects could improve somewhat during the middle of the month.