Are We Going To Finally Get Big Fall Auroras ?

Are we going to finally get big Fall Auroras ? I am not sure? We have some breaks in between storms. a time where things might dissipate between the first two CMEs and the one that happened to day. However we have incoming coronal hole stream as well. So my best guess is that it is all down to trajectory and windspeeds. Will CME combine with another or coronal hole stream.

Good news is there’s are solid M Class flares getting increasingly larger as they go. The are though only listed as Quarter Halo hits. Good thing being they are off the outgoing limb and Centrifugal force will spin it slightly backwards. leading to a good chance the first two CME will be a solid hit coming in between 11pm and 4 am eastern Time Thursday into Friday. The third CME is less certain. It is a possibility that we may only get a glancing blow from it.

The incoming coronal hole is a trans equatorial and quite spread out. The leading edge may still combine with the last CME giving us a chance at snow shovel event. It will take another 3 or 4 days for us to see the effects of the main part of Coronal holes. Plus side this is giving us an extend chance at auroras. Most of the CME are really slow, so there is a greater chance that they may combine with other smaller CME and Coronal holes boosting density for brief periods.

Looks like Friday Morning is going to be our best chance at up to a KP6. Then things will likely dissipate to KP4 and then spike again as coronal hole and third CME come in.

We will still have 4549 with us another day and that is beta-gamma-delta. The CMEs have been getting increasingly larger so it is possible we have something larger from it. 4548 is now rolling into center stage. I don’t know as it will continue to grow, as 4545 and 4549 are continuing to grow. If these two spots continue to grow significantly they may come around in 27 days, as a combined stronger sunspot.

This year has been really funky. Neither weather or space weather are quite doing what they should. So it will be anyone’s guess.

I believe the back side of the sun may provide us with relief as well. There have been some larger eruptions this week from behind the sun, moving away from earth. This indicates we do have a complex group of sunspots just around the back side of outgoing limb. If these hold together these will return toward the end of the month.

We are looking good for Thursday into Friday. Saturday night becomes problematic for Michigan. Monday into Tuesday we see a return to our fall rainstorms. Good News it is rainbow season. The sun is sitting at just the right angle to produce some great rainbow at sunrise and sunset. After the 15th we should see a return to partly clear skies through the 23. The hiccup in all of it will be do we have fog and humidity on the horizon hat will block our view?