• Forecast

    Do We Have An Exciting Forecast?

    Forecast for week of October 12-18th

    Do we have a an exciting forecast coming this week? There is a lot to look at so lets break it down it. Starting with the filament that has everyone undoubtably heard about. This was actually a filament eruption , so it did not have a flare with it. and the CME came off to side, so it will for the most part not hit us, but there is a small pop that will impact us pushed by winds. This is will give us higher winds and minor CME impact. This should hit after Midnight on the 14th into 15th , depending on wind speeds it is likely to hit during the Day on the 15th. The other two CMEs one I think is going to past to the right of us off outgoing limb. The third I think going straight up is on the back side of the sun.

    Huxt shows the third CME we were waiting for is going to be a miss. Then a minor part of what took off on 11th will brush us while the major part of that Filament will pass by out on the incoming limb.

    Coronal holes are increasing lately and we have a crazing amount of them turning earth facing impacting us now through the next few days. We have a partial reformed filament where the one yesterday took off from, and one just to the left of that is pretty high off the sun and could produce another Filament release.

    The good news will all of this is I have been noticing the increase in back sided CME. You can tell they are back side by looking at Cactus view and looking at the shadow or highlight area right around the edge of the disk. Diagram below shows earth in the middle and back side on either end. so we have a good amount turning in earth facing next week and we will have more opportunities coming through the first part of next month.

    9We do have some thunderstorms moving in tonight after 9pm. Nothing is warned at this point but might give you an opportunity to shoot lightning. Traverse will be good about 9pm and Charlevoix after ten will get a one two punch, with the trailing line of last storm moving through Mackinaw after 11pm. I am thinking I am need a de stress day, and spending time with Grandfather thunders sounds like a just thing to relax with. Maybe I will see you out there.

    Through Friday is looking pretty cloudy in the Great Lakes and I don’t hold much hope of seeing to much. It is looking a little like we will get skunked during the next Aurora event too. We can always pray that forecast moves a little slower than predicted. I would suggest we start doing that because unless that particular sun spot group blows it’s self out, it might be a really good chance at good storm.

    One last note, Media likes to hype things to get viewer ship. Content creator out there will try to get people over excited to boost their followers, I am going to play this straight no hype. I am going to be really conservative here. WE have a problem with this current set of CME and coronal holes stream of it having a southern polarity, meaning BZ was positive. We did see something but nothing really good. Unless you were among the ones to Catch that KP7 before polarity shifted. We are also well into fall weather patterns, and we are soon going to be into the patter of night clouding and lake evaporation. Lakes are warm, weather is cooling… I am personally not getting an really wild headaches and thankfully not in to much pain, which doesn’t bode well for aurora hunting. So I am not getting excited about anything but the lightning tonight. I might check after thunderstorms if clouds aren’t in the way.

    That does not mean stay in side. It is important to get out there and practice. Get out there shoot Halloween lights create something creep and share it in groups. Shoot holiday lights next month. This is part that few photographers mention. You have to keep practicing. When you don’t use your skills between aurora events you get rusty. That is when you forget things and miss opportunities.

  • Forecast

    Are We Going To Finally Get Big Fall Auroras ?

    Are we going to finally get big Fall Auroras ? I am not sure? We have some breaks in between storms. a time where things might dissipate between the first two CMEs and the one that happened to day. However we have incoming coronal hole stream as well. So my best guess is that it is all down to trajectory and windspeeds. Will CME combine with another or coronal hole stream.

    Good news is there’s are solid M Class flares getting increasingly larger as they go. The are though only listed as Quarter Halo hits. Good thing being they are off the outgoing limb and Centrifugal force will spin it slightly backwards. leading to a good chance the first two CME will be a solid hit coming in between 11pm and 4 am eastern Time Thursday into Friday. The third CME is less certain. It is a possibility that we may only get a glancing blow from it.

    The incoming coronal hole is a trans equatorial and quite spread out. The leading edge may still combine with the last CME giving us a chance at snow shovel event. It will take another 3 or 4 days for us to see the effects of the main part of Coronal holes. Plus side this is giving us an extend chance at auroras. Most of the CME are really slow, so there is a greater chance that they may combine with other smaller CME and Coronal holes boosting density for brief periods.

    Looks like Friday Morning is going to be our best chance at up to a KP6. Then things will likely dissipate to KP4 and then spike again as coronal hole and third CME come in.

    We will still have 4549 with us another day and that is beta-gamma-delta. The CMEs have been getting increasingly larger so it is possible we have something larger from it. 4548 is now rolling into center stage. I don’t know as it will continue to grow, as 4545 and 4549 are continuing to grow. If these two spots continue to grow significantly they may come around in 27 days, as a combined stronger sunspot.

    This year has been really funky. Neither weather or space weather are quite doing what they should. So it will be anyone’s guess.

    I believe the back side of the sun may provide us with relief as well. There have been some larger eruptions this week from behind the sun, moving away from earth. This indicates we do have a complex group of sunspots just around the back side of outgoing limb. If these hold together these will return toward the end of the month.

    We are looking good for Thursday into Friday. Saturday night becomes problematic for Michigan. Monday into Tuesday we see a return to our fall rainstorms. Good News it is rainbow season. The sun is sitting at just the right angle to produce some great rainbow at sunrise and sunset. After the 15th we should see a return to partly clear skies through the 23. The hiccup in all of it will be do we have fog and humidity on the horizon hat will block our view?

  • Dark Sky Articles,  Helpful Tips

    Guidelines for Aurora Hunting!

    Reason for Guidelines.

    Guidelines for Aurora hunters helps us develop good habits. These good habits allow us to work together more effectively. Now that many people have cell phones capable of seeing auroras we are starting to have over crowding issues. If everyone is doing their own thing, without thought for others. It becomes like the wild west with no rules. This is when accidents will happen. Trespassing happens, people make costly mistakes. and people miss shots they want.

    These Guidelines are a check list. If you do things the same way every time, you brain will develop a routine that you do without thinking about. If we are all following the same guidelines. Then we all develop the same habits. In times when we are over excited about seeing auroras this will kick in, and prevent us from creating dangerous situations, avoid ruining other peoples photos and help you do everything right so you miss nothing

    Basic Guidelines

    1.     Your eyes will take several minutes to adjust to the darkness, so turn off your car lights as soon as you park. Wait a few minutes before venturing away from your car to give your eyes time to adjust. This makes sure you are not flooding light into other peoples pictures. Most cars work best by turning your headlights straight off and then turn off your car. This will turn off the time delay.

    2.     Set your focus by your car. This way, you can use a flashlight without disturbing others who may be shooting. Double-check focus Taking a picture then enlarging an image on the back of your camera to ensure the stars are tack sharp. Not all infinity spots are spot on, you will need to test your lens. Also if you carry painters tap, put it on side of your lens it will prevent it from turning out of focus.

    3.     Set your white balance, shutter speed, f-stop, and ISO before leaving your car. This way, you can make minor adjustments in the field without struggling. A shutter speed of 20- 30 seconds, the lowest f-stop possible, and an ISO of 1600 are good starting points. If you need more light, raise your ISO. If you need less light turn down ISO. If your stars are a Comma then reduce your shutter speed. There is a rule called 500 rule to determine ideal setting for your lens.

    4.     Use a red light when walking to avoid disturbing your night vision. However, use a regular flashlight around other people—normal flashlight light can be corrected in editing, but red light is nearly impossible to fix.

    5.     Keep all flashlights and headlamps pointed at the ground while walking so you do not bother other people with your light. Aim your light away from anyone you pass to avoid disturbing their night vision or photography.

    6.     Walk behind people, not in front of them, in the dark. Cameras require long exposures at night, and they may be in the middle of a shot.

    7.     Be aware of your surroundings so you do not set up in front of someone else. Some photographers may not mind an aurora hunter in their shot, but most do.

    8.     If you are near other people and need to use a flashlight, call out first and wait for confirmation that shutters are closed before turning it on.

    9.     Learn your camera well enough that you do not need a flashlight to adjust your settings. If you know where your buttons are and how to change settings, you can train yourself to do that by touch. LCD screen is bright enough to see what you are changing. Also you may want to reduce brightness of LCD screen on the back of your camera. Left in daylight setting it will make you think your image is more exposed than it is.

    10. Make sure you research how to set up histogram in your camera. Learn to depend on it because it always tells you if you are exposed properly. If the hill in your histogram is all the way to the left , then you are to dark. If it is middle to the right then chances are you are to bright. Though my one tip is to shoot 1 stop overexposed at night. You can draw down your highlights a stop in editing, your shadows up a stop. This gives you a wider gradient that is more level between shadows and hightlights.

    11. Practice safety in the field. Never leave your wingman until everyone is back in their car and engines are started.

    Some Basic Safety

    1. Park on the same side of the road you are going to. People have been killed crossing the road at night. Avoid doing that at all costs.
    2. Get a simple reflective vest with pockets at a hardware. This can assure you are seen at night in parking lots or by roads. Pockets can double at way to carry batteries, cards and keys.
    3. NEVER park on both sides of the road. This creates a tunnel that cars must travel through and leaves them no where to swerve if someone steps out in front of them.
    4. Respect Park Rules if you are in park respect the rules. If you become a proble by ignoring rules, others will follow and then parks will close areas at night because people aren’t respecting the park.
    5. Respect Private Property don’t go walking down on private property without permission.
    6. Don’t walk out into fields without permission. they are private property and you could be costing a farmer money.
    7. Leave Handicapped parking spaces for handicapped hunters. We do have hunters that do have handicapped and there isn’t enough safe places for them to do, Don’t take space away from the.
    8. Park in designated parking spots. don’t park on the grass. don’t park in front of signage like stop signs or park notifications.
    9. Plan ahead with more than one location, so if one place is full there are other places to go nearby.
    10. If you are traveling a distance, use your groups to try to find a local to meet up with. You are safer using a buddy system and safer with someone that knows the local area.
      1. Michigan Aurora Hunters https://www.facebook.com/groups/827471430698956
      2. Wisconsin Aurora Hunters https://www.facebook.com/groups/176764332892448
      3. North American Dark Skies https://www.facebook.com/groups/Unitedstatesdarkskies