Do We Have An Exciting Forecast?

Forecast for week of October 12-18th

Do we have a an exciting forecast coming this week? There is a lot to look at so lets break it down it. Starting with the filament that has everyone undoubtably heard about. This was actually a filament eruption , so it did not have a flare with it. and the CME came off to side, so it will for the most part not hit us, but there is a small pop that will impact us pushed by winds. This is will give us higher winds and minor CME impact. This should hit after Midnight on the 14th into 15th , depending on wind speeds it is likely to hit during the Day on the 15th. The other two CMEs one I think is going to past to the right of us off outgoing limb. The third I think going straight up is on the back side of the sun.

Huxt shows the third CME we were waiting for is going to be a miss. Then a minor part of what took off on 11th will brush us while the major part of that Filament will pass by out on the incoming limb.

Coronal holes are increasing lately and we have a crazing amount of them turning earth facing impacting us now through the next few days. We have a partial reformed filament where the one yesterday took off from, and one just to the left of that is pretty high off the sun and could produce another Filament release.

The good news will all of this is I have been noticing the increase in back sided CME. You can tell they are back side by looking at Cactus view and looking at the shadow or highlight area right around the edge of the disk. Diagram below shows earth in the middle and back side on either end. so we have a good amount turning in earth facing next week and we will have more opportunities coming through the first part of next month.

9We do have some thunderstorms moving in tonight after 9pm. Nothing is warned at this point but might give you an opportunity to shoot lightning. Traverse will be good about 9pm and Charlevoix after ten will get a one two punch, with the trailing line of last storm moving through Mackinaw after 11pm. I am thinking I am need a de stress day, and spending time with Grandfather thunders sounds like a just thing to relax with. Maybe I will see you out there.

Through Friday is looking pretty cloudy in the Great Lakes and I don’t hold much hope of seeing to much. It is looking a little like we will get skunked during the next Aurora event too. We can always pray that forecast moves a little slower than predicted. I would suggest we start doing that because unless that particular sun spot group blows it’s self out, it might be a really good chance at good storm.

One last note, Media likes to hype things to get viewer ship. Content creator out there will try to get people over excited to boost their followers, I am going to play this straight no hype. I am going to be really conservative here. WE have a problem with this current set of CME and coronal holes stream of it having a southern polarity, meaning BZ was positive. We did see something but nothing really good. Unless you were among the ones to Catch that KP7 before polarity shifted. We are also well into fall weather patterns, and we are soon going to be into the patter of night clouding and lake evaporation. Lakes are warm, weather is cooling… I am personally not getting an really wild headaches and thankfully not in to much pain, which doesn’t bode well for aurora hunting. So I am not getting excited about anything but the lightning tonight. I might check after thunderstorms if clouds aren’t in the way.

That does not mean stay in side. It is important to get out there and practice. Get out there shoot Halloween lights create something creep and share it in groups. Shoot holiday lights next month. This is part that few photographers mention. You have to keep practicing. When you don’t use your skills between aurora events you get rusty. That is when you forget things and miss opportunities.