Activity Peaks Around October 14th

Activity is predicted to Peak around October 14th. The last of the CMEs are going to impact with a minor spike of activity. Likely most of us will not see much due to clouds and late rain on Oct 13th settling into cloudy skies on 14th. We do have continued coronal hole stream through the 17th. Possible strongest that winds will hit through the day on the 14th.

Looking Forward

4549 has now rotated around the outgoing Limb. Its eruptions are getting smaller and it was in decline. I don’t expect that spot to rotate back around. But maybe another spot will gain magnetic strength on the back side.

We have many new spots develop as we see the next bunch of spots rotate in. Including a now forming sunspot so new it doesn’t have a number yet. It sits right over the largest spot, 4551 on southern Hemisphere. It is now beta Gama up in strength since yesterday and now with in striking distance. 4551 is down by a spot, which means as the magnetic energy increase some sunspots merge it together. It is up in size by 2,400,000 miles. This means it is rapidly growing and expanding. Which maybe why the are waiting to see if the new spot is it’s own spot or part of the growth of 4551. Update; 4551 has started growing 9 new spots. and expanding to cover 1,440,000 miles I can foresee as this increases once it reaches center disk where it connects magnetically this could become really eruptive.

4554, 4555, 4556, & 4557 are all still Beta class sunspots. They seem to be holding steady. without growing. But they aren’t dissipating either. We will have to wait and watch these sunspots to see if they expand.

Now lets talk coronal holes. Staring at the top, with N67E25 It is sitting just off the center of the northern pole of the sun. We might be feel some effect from that in about four days. Three days out from hitting us N28E02 , half way between equator and the pole. Trailing behind and just above it. is n44E40 which is small and I believe just developing. it will flow behind in about 5 days. On the southern hemisphere. just ahead of N44E40, last we have the Coronal hole is S16E42 This one so large and placed just behind the 4551 sunspot which means we could see some combination of coronal and CME if the timing is right. The leading Coronal holes are negative charge.

Right by 4551 leading north around top of the coronal hole is a Filament. There are many filaments on the disk any of them could cause an eruption. The most like to lift off soon is the one near 4551. However around the coronal hole.N44E40 there seems to be a strong winds lifting off that region.